CLIMATE CHANGE AND SPACE-TIME VARIABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN COLOMBIA

Andrés Felipe Hurtado Montoya, Óscar José Mesa Sánchez

Abstract


This paper reviews previous studies on the impact of climate change on Colombian precipitation and presents arguments in favor of the analysis of observed quantities, as well as highlighting limitations of climate models to predict future changes in precipitation. The spatial and temporal variability of precipitation, one of the main variables of the water cycle, is studied. To do so, a reanalysis of the precipitation field in Colombia was developing, including 384 fields of monthly precipitation for the period 1975-2006 at a spatial resolution of 5 minutes of arc. The study performed with the available fields was based on the estimation and analysis of empirical orthogonal functions, principal components, and statistical tests to detect changes or trends in monthly precipitation in Colombia over time. This study advances the understanding of spatial and temporal variability of the water resources in the country, as well as identifying signs and effects of climate change. A brief discussion of research problems arising from climate change is presented at the end.


Keywords


precipitation, reanalysis, spatial and temporal variability, climate change.

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